Co-Author on Paper at INET'15 / by Rob Smith

Glad to be a co-author on a new paper, presented by my friend and colleague David Tuckett, at the 2015 Conference of the Institute of New Economic Thinking.The paper is about a new theory of decision-making (Conviction Narrative Theory, CNT) and a new methodology for economic prediction (Directed Algorithmic Text Analysis, DATA). In many ways, it's an attempt to operationalize things like Keynes' theory of long-term expectations and Soros'theory of reflexivity, making use of the new data sources and computer methodologies that are available now. It shows what I think are exciting new results, about how measures of people's conviction emotions, drawn from text sources, lead the technical variations of the economy. Animal spirits in action.